An asteroid once feared to be on a collision course with Earth is now expected to miss the planet, new calculations confirm.
The space rock, officially named 2024 YR4, recently passed Earth and is due to return in 2032. Initial estimates suggested a possible impact, raising concerns about potential devastation. Although not an extinction-level event, an impact could have caused severe blast damage across a 30-mile radius, especially if it struck a major city.
Earlier this week, the risk of collision surged to a record 3.1 per cent—making it the most significant threat ever recorded for an asteroid of its size. However, new data from astronomers has significantly lowered the risk. The European Space Agency (ESA) now estimates the chance of impact at just 0.16 per cent, with expectations that it will continue to decrease.
“Thanks to new observations, Earth is now at the edge of our shrinking ‘uncertainty window’,” ESA stated in its latest update. “If this trend continues, the risk may soon reach 0%.”
Astronomers are constantly refining their predictions as they collect more data, allowing them to track the asteroid’s trajectory with greater accuracy. Currently, 2024 YR4 is expected to pass Earth at a safe distance of around 86 Earth radii.
While the risk to Earth has diminished, there is now a 1.2 per cent chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon instead. Scientists will continue to monitor its path in the coming years.
